Pelister 4–0 Bashkimi Kumanovo: Result & Stats

Pelister

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bashkimi Kumanovo

11/25/2023

Second League · Round 13Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pelister61%

×Draw24%

Bashkimi Kumanovo16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelisterExpected goals in this matchBashkimi Kumanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.73

Pelister

1.71

Bashkimi Kumanovo

0.73

Pelister creates 134% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

2.34

creates per match

0.97

0.50

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Pelister

2.34

Bashkimi Kumanovo

0.97

allows per match

Pelister

0.50

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par

Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Bashkimi Kumanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pelister or draw

84%

Pelister or Bashkimi Kumanovo

76%

Draw or Bashkimi Kumanovo

39%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+

34%

Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals

82%

Pelister 2+ goals

51%

Pelister 3+ goals

24%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals

52%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals

17%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)

80%

Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.50 · 38 matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.34 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 0.97 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pelister scores more

61%

level

24%

Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more

16%

Pelister at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Pelister 4–0 Bashkimi Kumanovo

Pelister beat Bashkimi Kumanovo 4-0 in Second League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe in Bitola.

Pelister vs Bashkimi Kumanovo — Second League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Second League: Pelister 4–0 Bashkimi Kumanovo