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Pelikan Łowicz vs Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
FT
3 – 1
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
6/12/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz58%
×Draw22%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelikan Łowicz
1.92
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.02

Pelikan Łowicz creates 88% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 18 away

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.62
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
0.78

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.26
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
2.22

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw
80%
Pelikan Łowicz or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
78%
Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
42%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
34%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
85%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
57%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
30%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
64%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
27%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
75%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more
58%
level
22%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
20%

Pelikan Łowicz at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pelikan Łowicz 3–1 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Pelikan Łowicz beat Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pelikan in Łowicz.