Pelikan Łowicz 0–2 Kutno: Result & Stats

Pelikan Łowicz

FT

0 – 2

Kutno

9/27/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz45%

×Draw24%

Kutno31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pelikan ŁowiczExpected goals in this matchKutno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.35

Pelikan Łowicz

1.69

Kutno

1.35

Pelikan Łowicz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 36 away

1.62

creates per match

1.44

1.26

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz

1.62

Kutno

1.44

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz

1.26

Kutno

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Kutno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Kutno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw

69%

Pelikan Łowicz or Kutno

76%

Draw or Kutno

55%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+

24%

Kutno wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals

82%

Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals

50%

Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals

24%

Kutno 1+ goals

74%

Kutno 2+ goals

39%

Kutno 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)

60%

Kutno (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Kutno away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Kutno defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kutno attack 1.44 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more

45%

level

24%

Kutno scores more

31%

Pelikan Łowicz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff