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Pélican vs US Oyem — Championnat D1 2022

Pélican
Pélican
FT
2 – 0
US Oyem
US Oyem
3/4/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 11Stade Jean Koumou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pélican51%
×Draw25%
US Oyem24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pélican
1.60
US Oyem
1.02

Pélican creates 57% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pélican
1.56
US Oyem
0.91

allows per match

Pélican
1.13
US Oyem
1.64

finishing

Pélican+0.00on par
US Oyem+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pélican ↓

US Oyem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pélican or draw
76%
Pélican or US Oyem
75%
Draw or US Oyem
49%

Winning margin

Pélican wins by 2+
27%
US Oyem wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pélican 1+ goals
80%
Pélican 2+ goals
47%
Pélican 3+ goals
22%
US Oyem 1+ goals
64%
US Oyem 2+ goals
27%
US Oyem 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pélican (draw refunded)
68%
US Oyem (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pélican at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

US Oyem away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pélican attack 1.56 + US Oyem defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

US Oyem attack 0.91 + Pélican defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pélican scores more
51%
level
25%
US Oyem scores more
24%

Pélican at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pélican will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Pélican 2–0 US Oyem

Pélican beat US Oyem 2-0 in Championnat D1 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Jean Koumou in Lambaréné.