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Pélican vs Stade Mandji — Championnat D1 2022

Pélican
Pélican
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
5/30/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pélican40%
×Draw29%
Stade Mandji31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pélican
1.20
Stade Mandji
1.03

Pélican creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Pélican
1.56
Stade Mandji
0.94

allows per match

Pélican
1.13
Stade Mandji
0.84

finishing

Pélican+0.00on par
Stade Mandji+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pélican ↓

Stade Mandji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pélican or draw
69%
Pélican or Stade Mandji
71%
Draw or Stade Mandji
60%

Winning margin

Pélican wins by 2+
17%
Stade Mandji wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pélican 1+ goals
70%
Pélican 2+ goals
34%
Pélican 3+ goals
12%
Stade Mandji 1+ goals
64%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
28%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pélican (draw refunded)
56%
Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pélican at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Stade Mandji away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pélican attack 1.56 + Stade Mandji defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.20

Stade Mandji attack 0.94 + Pélican defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pélican scores more
40%
level
29%
Stade Mandji scores more
31%

Pélican at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pélican will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Pélican 0–0 Stade Mandji

Pélican and Stade Mandji drew 0-0 in Championnat D1 on May 30, 2026.