Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pélican vs Cercle Mbéri — Championnat D1 2022

Pélican
Pélican
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
4/29/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pélican34%
×Draw28%
Cercle Mbéri38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pélican
1.13
Cercle Mbéri
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pélican
1.56
Cercle Mbéri
1.30

allows per match

Pélican
1.13
Cercle Mbéri
0.70

finishing

Pélican+0.00on par
Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pélican ↓

Cercle Mbéri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pélican or draw
62%
Pélican or Cercle Mbéri
72%
Draw or Cercle Mbéri
66%

Winning margin

Pélican wins by 2+
14%
Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pélican 1+ goals
68%
Pélican 2+ goals
31%
Pélican 3+ goals
11%
Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
70%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
34%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pélican (draw refunded)
47%
Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pélican at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Cercle Mbéri away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pélican attack 1.56 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.30 + Pélican defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pélican scores more
34%
level
28%
Cercle Mbéri scores more
38%

Cercle Mbéri at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Pélican 2–0 Cercle Mbéri

Pélican beat Cercle Mbéri 2-0 in Championnat D1 on April 29, 2026.