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Pélican vs Bouenguidi — Championnat D1 2022

Pélican
Pélican
FT
1 – 0
Bouenguidi
Bouenguidi
3/17/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 13Stade Jean Koumou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pélican48%
×Draw27%
Bouenguidi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pélican
1.42
Bouenguidi
0.94

Pélican creates 51% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Pélican
1.56
Bouenguidi
0.75

allows per match

Pélican
1.13
Bouenguidi
1.28

finishing

Pélican+0.00on par
Bouenguidi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pélican ↓

Bouenguidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pélican or draw
75%
Pélican or Bouenguidi
73%
Draw or Bouenguidi
52%

Winning margin

Pélican wins by 2+
24%
Bouenguidi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pélican 1+ goals
76%
Pélican 2+ goals
41%
Pélican 3+ goals
17%
Bouenguidi 1+ goals
61%
Bouenguidi 2+ goals
24%
Bouenguidi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pélican (draw refunded)
66%
Bouenguidi (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pélican at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Bouenguidi away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pélican attack 1.56 + Bouenguidi defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bouenguidi attack 0.75 + Pélican defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pélican scores more
48%
level
27%
Bouenguidi scores more
25%

Pélican at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pélican will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pélican vs Bouenguidi

Pélican beat Bouenguidi 1-0 in Championnat D1 on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Jean Koumou in Lambaréné.