Bouenguidi 1–0 Pélican: Result & Stats

Bouenguidi

FT

1 – 0

Pélican

11/23/2024

Championnat D1 · Round 1Stade TATA MIGOLET de Koulamoutou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bouenguidi34%

×Draw29%

Pélican37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BouenguidiExpected goals in this matchPélican

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.13

Bouenguidi

1.06

Pélican

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

0.73

creates per match

1.29

0.97

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Bouenguidi

0.73

Pélican

1.29

allows per match

Bouenguidi

0.97

Pélican

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bouenguidi+0.00on par

Pélican+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouenguidi ↓

Pélican →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bouenguidi or draw

63%

Bouenguidi or Pélican

71%

Draw or Pélican

66%

Winning margin

Bouenguidi wins by 2+

13%

Pélican wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bouenguidi 1+ goals

65%

Bouenguidi 2+ goals

29%

Bouenguidi 3+ goals

9%

Pélican 1+ goals

68%

Pélican 2+ goals

31%

Pélican 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bouenguidi (draw refunded)

48%

Pélican (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouenguidi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Pélican away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouenguidi attack 0.73 + Pélican defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.06

Pélican attack 1.29 + Bouenguidi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bouenguidi scores more

34%

level

29%

Pélican scores more

37%

Pélican at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pélican will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff