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Pelhřimov vs Žďár nad Sázavou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Pelhřimov
Pelhřimov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
8/20/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 3Stadion TJ Spartak Pelhřimov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pelhřimov41%
×Draw23%
Žďár nad Sázavou36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelhřimov
1.75
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

creates per match

Pelhřimov
1.60
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.54

allows per match

Pelhřimov
1.70
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.90

finishing

Pelhřimov+0.00on par
Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelhřimov ↓

Žďár nad Sázavou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pelhřimov or draw
64%
Pelhřimov or Žďár nad Sázavou
77%
Draw or Žďár nad Sázavou
59%

Winning margin

Pelhřimov wins by 2+
22%
Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pelhřimov 1+ goals
83%
Pelhřimov 2+ goals
52%
Pelhřimov 3+ goals
25%
Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
80%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
48%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Pelhřimov (draw refunded)
53%
Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelhřimov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Žďár nad Sázavou away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelhřimov attack 1.60 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.54 + Pelhřimov defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pelhřimov scores more
41%
level
23%
Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
36%

Pelhřimov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pelhřimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Pelhřimov 3–0 Žďár nad Sázavou

Pelhřimov beat Žďár nad Sázavou 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Spartak Pelhřimov in Pelhřimov.