Pelhřimov 1–2 Slavoj Polná: Result & Stats

Pelhřimov

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Slavoj Polná

8/27/2023

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 4Stadion TJ Spartak Pelhřimov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pelhřimov61%

×Draw19%

Slavoj Polná20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelhřimovExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Polná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.33

Pelhřimov

2.40

Slavoj Polná

1.33

Pelhřimov creates 80% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 54 away

1.60

creates per match

0.96

1.70

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Pelhřimov

1.60

Slavoj Polná

0.96

allows per match

Pelhřimov

1.70

Slavoj Polná

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelhřimov+0.00on par

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelhřimov ↓

Slavoj Polná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Pelhřimov or draw

80%

Pelhřimov or Slavoj Polná

81%

Draw or Slavoj Polná

39%

Winning margin

Pelhřimov wins by 2+

39%

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pelhřimov 1+ goals

91%

Pelhřimov 2+ goals

69%

Pelhřimov 3+ goals

42%

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals

74%

Slavoj Polná 2+ goals

38%

Slavoj Polná 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pelhřimov (draw refunded)

75%

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelhřimov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelhřimov attack 1.60 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.40

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Pelhřimov defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pelhřimov scores more

61%

level

19%

Slavoj Polná scores more

20%

Pelhřimov at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pelhřimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff