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PeKa vs PPJ — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

PeKa
PeKa
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
PPJ
PPJ
9/5/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 12Arto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

PeKa36%
×Draw24%
PPJ40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PeKa
1.48
PPJ
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

PeKa
1.45
PPJ
1.76

allows per match

PeKa
1.41
PPJ
1.50

finishing

PeKa+0.00on par
PPJ+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PeKa ↓

PPJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

PeKa or draw
60%
PeKa or PPJ
76%
Draw or PPJ
64%

Winning margin

PeKa wins by 2+
17%
PPJ wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

PeKa 1+ goals
77%
PeKa 2+ goals
43%
PeKa 3+ goals
19%
PPJ 1+ goals
79%
PPJ 2+ goals
47%
PPJ 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

PeKa (draw refunded)
47%
PPJ (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PeKa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

PPJ away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PeKa attack 1.45 + PPJ defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

PPJ attack 1.76 + PeKa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PeKa scores more
36%
level
24%
PPJ scores more
40%

PPJ at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PPJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: PeKa 1–5 PPJ

PPJ beat PeKa 5-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on September 5, 2022.

The match was played at Arto Tolsa Areena in Kotka.