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PeKa vs KajHa — Suomen Cup 2018

PeKa
PeKa
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
KajHa
KajHa
4/10/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundArto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PeKa32%
×Draw19%
KajHa49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PeKa
2.17
KajHa
2.67

KajHa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

PeKa
1.67
KajHa
1.33

allows per match

PeKa
4.00
KajHa
2.67

finishing

PeKa+0.00on par
KajHa+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PeKa ↓

KajHa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

PeKa or draw
51%
PeKa or KajHa
81%
Draw or KajHa
68%

Winning margin

PeKa wins by 2+
17%
KajHa wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

PeKa 1+ goals
89%
PeKa 2+ goals
64%
PeKa 3+ goals
36%
KajHa 1+ goals
93%
KajHa 2+ goals
74%
KajHa 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

PeKa (draw refunded)
40%
KajHa (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PeKa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

KajHa away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PeKa attack 1.67 + KajHa defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

KajHa attack 1.33 + PeKa defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PeKa scores more
32%
level
19%
KajHa scores more
49%

KajHa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KajHa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PeKa 4 – 2 KajHa

PeKa beat KajHa 4-2 in Suomen Cup on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Arto Tolsa Areena in Kotka.