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Pehchevo vs Tikveš — Second League 2019

Pehchevo
Pehchevo
FT
0 – 3
Tikveš
Tikveš
9/19/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Pehchevo33%
×Draw27%
Tikveš39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pehchevo
1.15
Tikveš
1.28

Tikveš creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

creates per match

Pehchevo
1.59
Tikveš
1.48

allows per match

Pehchevo
1.08
Tikveš
0.71

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par
Tikveš+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Tikveš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw
61%
Pehchevo or Tikveš
73%
Draw or Tikveš
67%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+
14%
Tikveš wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals
68%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
32%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
11%
Tikveš 1+ goals
72%
Tikveš 2+ goals
37%
Tikveš 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)
46%
Tikveš (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Tikveš away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Tikveš defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tikveš attack 1.48 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pehchevo scores more
33%
level
27%
Tikveš scores more
39%

Tikveš at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tikveš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pehchevo vs Tikveš

Tikveš beat Pehchevo 3-0 in Second League on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pehchevo.