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Pehchevo vs Plačkovica — Second League 2019

Pehchevo
Pehchevo
FT
5 – 1
Plačkovica
Plačkovica
12/12/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 16Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pehchevo56%
×Draw23%
Plačkovica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pehchevo
1.82
Plačkovica
1.02

Pehchevo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

creates per match

Pehchevo
1.59
Plačkovica
0.95

allows per match

Pehchevo
1.08
Plačkovica
2.05

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par
Plačkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Plačkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw
79%
Pehchevo or Plačkovica
77%
Draw or Plačkovica
44%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+
32%
Plačkovica wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals
84%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
54%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
27%
Plačkovica 1+ goals
64%
Plačkovica 2+ goals
27%
Plačkovica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)
73%
Plačkovica (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Plačkovica away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Plačkovica defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.82

Plačkovica attack 0.95 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pehchevo scores more
56%
level
23%
Plačkovica scores more
21%

Pehchevo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pehchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Pehchevo 5–1 Plačkovica

Pehchevo beat Plačkovica 5-1 in Second League on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Štip.