Pehchevo 1–3 Detonit Plachkovica: Result & Stats

Pehchevo

FT

1 – 3

Detonit Plachkovica

4/23/2023

Second League · Round 25Hasanbeg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pehchevo41%

×Draw26%

Detonit Plachkovica33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PehchevoExpected goals in this matchDetonit Plachkovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.21

Pehchevo

1.37

Detonit Plachkovica

1.21

Pehchevo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 60 away

1.59

creates per match

1.33

1.08

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Pehchevo

1.59

Detonit Plachkovica

1.33

allows per match

Pehchevo

1.08

Detonit Plachkovica

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw

67%

Pehchevo or Detonit Plachkovica

74%

Draw or Detonit Plachkovica

59%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+

19%

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals

75%

Pehchevo 2+ goals

40%

Pehchevo 3+ goals

16%

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals

70%

Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals

34%

Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)

55%

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.37

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pehchevo scores more

41%

level

26%

Detonit Plachkovica scores more

33%

Pehchevo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pehchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff