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Pehchevo vs Bregalnica Štip — Second League 2019

Pehchevo
Pehchevo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
5/8/2021Second LeagueSecond League · East - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pehchevo31%
×Draw26%
Bregalnica Štip43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pehchevo
1.16
Bregalnica Štip
1.43

Bregalnica Štip creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pehchevo
1.59
Bregalnica Štip
1.78

allows per match

Pehchevo
1.08
Bregalnica Štip
0.73

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par
Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Bregalnica Štip →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw
57%
Pehchevo or Bregalnica Štip
74%
Draw or Bregalnica Štip
69%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+
12%
Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals
69%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
32%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
11%
Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
76%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
42%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)
41%
Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Bregalnica Štip defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bregalnica Štip attack 1.78 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pehchevo scores more
31%
level
26%
Bregalnica Štip scores more
43%

Bregalnica Štip at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pehchevo vs Bregalnica Štip

Bregalnica Štip beat Pehchevo 2-1 in Second League on May 8, 2021.