Pehchevo 3–2 Borec: Result & Stats | Second League

Pehchevo

FT

3 – 2

Borec

11/5/2022

Second League · Round 11Teren FK Petrovec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pehchevo73%

×Draw17%

Borec10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PehchevoExpected goals in this matchBorec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.70

Pehchevo

2.29

Borec

0.70

Pehchevo creates 227% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 31 away

1.59

creates per match

0.32

1.08

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Pehchevo

1.59

Borec

0.32

allows per match

Pehchevo

1.08

Borec

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par

Borec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Borec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw

90%

Pehchevo or Borec

83%

Draw or Borec

27%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+

49%

Borec wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals

90%

Pehchevo 2+ goals

66%

Pehchevo 3+ goals

40%

Borec 1+ goals

50%

Borec 2+ goals

16%

Borec 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)

88%

Borec (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Borec away — creates 0.32, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Borec defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Borec attack 0.32 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Pehchevo scores more

73%

level

17%

Borec scores more

10%

Pehchevo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Pehchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff