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Pehchevo vs Besa Dobërdoll — Second League 2019

Pehchevo
Pehchevo
FT
2 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
5/13/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Hasanbeg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pehchevo33%
×Draw26%
Besa Dobërdoll41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pehchevo
1.21
Besa Dobërdoll
1.38

Besa Dobërdoll creates 14% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pehchevo
1.59
Besa Dobërdoll
1.67

allows per match

Pehchevo
1.08
Besa Dobërdoll
0.83

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw
59%
Pehchevo or Besa Dobërdoll
74%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
67%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+
14%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals
70%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
34%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
12%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
75%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
40%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)
45%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pehchevo scores more
33%
level
26%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
41%

Besa Dobërdoll at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Pehchevo 2–0 Besa Dobërdoll

Pehchevo beat Besa Dobërdoll 2-0 in Second League on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Hasanbeg Arena in Chento.