Pedroñeras 1–0 Manzanares: Result & Stats

Pedroñeras

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manzanares

4/25/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Municipal de Las Pedroñeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pedroñeras55%

×Draw25%

Manzanares20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PedroñerasExpected goals in this matchManzanares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.86

Pedroñeras

1.61

Manzanares

0.86

Pedroñeras creates 87% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

0.94

creates per match

0.59

1.13

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Pedroñeras

0.94

Manzanares

0.59

allows per match

Pedroñeras

1.13

Manzanares

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pedroñeras+0.00on par

Manzanares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pedroñeras ↓

Manzanares →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pedroñeras or draw

80%

Pedroñeras or Manzanares

75%

Draw or Manzanares

45%

Winning margin

Pedroñeras wins by 2+

29%

Manzanares wins by 2+

Team goals

Pedroñeras 1+ goals

80%

Pedroñeras 2+ goals

48%

Pedroñeras 3+ goals

22%

Manzanares 1+ goals

58%

Manzanares 2+ goals

21%

Manzanares 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pedroñeras (draw refunded)

73%

Manzanares (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pedroñeras at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Manzanares away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pedroñeras attack 0.94 + Manzanares defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.61

Manzanares attack 0.59 + Pedroñeras defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pedroñeras scores more

55%

level

25%

Manzanares scores more

20%

Pedroñeras at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pedroñeras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff