Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pedroñeras vs Manchego — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Pedroñeras
Pedroñeras
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manchego
Manchego
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 32Estadio Municipal de Las Pedroñeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pedroñeras32%
×Draw30%
Manchego38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pedroñeras
0.97
Manchego
1.09

Manchego creates 12% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 94 away

creates per match

Pedroñeras
0.94
Manchego
1.05

allows per match

Pedroñeras
1.13
Manchego
1.01

finishing

Pedroñeras+0.00on par
Manchego+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pedroñeras ↓

Manchego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Pedroñeras or draw
62%
Pedroñeras or Manchego
70%
Draw or Manchego
68%

Winning margin

Pedroñeras wins by 2+
12%
Manchego wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pedroñeras 1+ goals
62%
Pedroñeras 2+ goals
25%
Pedroñeras 3+ goals
7%
Manchego 1+ goals
66%
Manchego 2+ goals
30%
Manchego 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pedroñeras (draw refunded)
46%
Manchego (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pedroñeras at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Manchego away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pedroñeras attack 0.94 + Manchego defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Manchego attack 1.05 + Pedroñeras defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pedroñeras scores more
32%
level
30%
Manchego scores more
38%

Manchego at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Pedroñeras 0–0 Manchego

Pedroñeras and Manchego drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Las Pedroñeras in Las Pedroñeras.