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Pedroñeras vs La Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Pedroñeras
Pedroñeras
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
La Roda
La Roda
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 11Estadio Municipal de Las Pedroñeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pedroñeras52%
×Draw27%
La Roda21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pedroñeras
1.40
La Roda
0.77

Pedroñeras creates 82% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pedroñeras
0.94
La Roda
0.41

allows per match

Pedroñeras
1.13
La Roda
1.85

finishing

Pedroñeras+0.00on par
La Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pedroñeras ↓

La Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pedroñeras or draw
79%
Pedroñeras or La Roda
73%
Draw or La Roda
48%

Winning margin

Pedroñeras wins by 2+
26%
La Roda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pedroñeras 1+ goals
75%
Pedroñeras 2+ goals
41%
Pedroñeras 3+ goals
17%
La Roda 1+ goals
54%
La Roda 2+ goals
18%
La Roda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pedroñeras (draw refunded)
72%
La Roda (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pedroñeras at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

La Roda away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pedroñeras attack 0.94 + La Roda defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.40

La Roda attack 0.41 + Pedroñeras defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pedroñeras scores more
52%
level
27%
La Roda scores more
21%

Pedroñeras at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pedroñeras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pedroñeras 1 – 2 La Roda

La Roda beat Pedroñeras 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Las Pedroñeras in Las Pedroñeras.