Pedras Salgadas 1–4 Chaves: Result & Stats

Pedras Salgadas

1 – 4

Chaves

10/21/2018

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio da Portelinha (Pedras Salgadas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pedras Salgadas37%

×Draw29%

Chaves34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pedras SalgadasExpected goals in this matchChaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.09

Pedras Salgadas

1.15

Chaves

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Pedras Salgadas

1.20

Chaves

1.18

allows per match

Pedras Salgadas

1.00

Chaves

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pedras Salgadas+0.00on par

Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pedras Salgadas ↓

Chaves →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pedras Salgadas or draw

66%

Pedras Salgadas or Chaves

71%

Draw or Chaves

63%

Winning margin

Pedras Salgadas wins by 2+

15%

Chaves wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pedras Salgadas 1+ goals

68%

Pedras Salgadas 2+ goals

32%

Pedras Salgadas 3+ goals

11%

Chaves 1+ goals

66%

Chaves 2+ goals

30%

Chaves 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pedras Salgadas (draw refunded)

52%

Chaves (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pedras Salgadas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pedras Salgadas attack 1.20 + Chaves defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Chaves attack 1.18 + Pedras Salgadas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pedras Salgadas scores more

37%

level

29%

Chaves scores more

34%

Pedras Salgadas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pedras Salgadas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff