Pedras Salgadas vs Canelas 2010 — Taça de Portugal 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Pedras Salgadas29%
Canelas 201035%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Canelas 2010 creates 14% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under81
- Over19
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No72
- Yes28
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pedras Salgadas ↓
Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pedras Salgadas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches
Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pedras Salgadas attack 1.20 + Canelas 2010 defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.70
Canelas 2010 attack 0.60 + Pedras Salgadas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 35%?"
Canelas 2010 at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 35% does not mean "Canelas 2010 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Pedras Salgadas host Canelas 2010 on Sunday, 24 November 2019 at 15:00. The match is part of the Taça de Portugal 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Pedras Salgadas vs Canelas 2010
Pedras Salgadas and Canelas 2010 drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 24, 2019.
The match was played at Estádio da Portelinha in Pedras Salgadas.