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Pedras Rubras vs Salgueiros — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pedras Rubras
Pedras Rubras
FT
2 – 3
Salgueiros
Salgueiros
Everton 79'
T. Silva 70'
M. Baptista 52'
K. Serge 30'
Y. Semedo 23'
11/11/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Pedras Rubras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pedras Rubras34%
×Draw19%
Salgueiros46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pedras Rubras
2.10
Salgueiros
2.44

Salgueiros creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pedras Rubras
1.00
Salgueiros
2.20

allows per match

Pedras Rubras
2.67
Salgueiros
3.20

finishing

Pedras Rubras+0.00on par
Salgueiros+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pedras Rubras ↓

Salgueiros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Pedras Rubras or draw
54%
Pedras Rubras or Salgueiros
81%
Draw or Salgueiros
66%

Winning margin

Pedras Rubras wins by 2+
18%
Salgueiros wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pedras Rubras 1+ goals
88%
Pedras Rubras 2+ goals
62%
Pedras Rubras 3+ goals
35%
Salgueiros 1+ goals
91%
Salgueiros 2+ goals
70%
Salgueiros 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Pedras Rubras (draw refunded)
43%
Salgueiros (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pedras Rubras at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Salgueiros away — creates 2.20, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pedras Rubras attack 1.00 + Salgueiros defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Salgueiros attack 2.20 + Pedras Rubras defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pedras Rubras scores more
34%
level
19%
Salgueiros scores more
46%

Salgueiros at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Salgueiros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Y. Semedo
30'
K. Serge
52'
M. Baptista
70'
T. Silva
79'
Everton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pedras Rubras vs Salgueiros

Salgueiros beat Pedras Rubras 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on November 11, 2020.

Goals: Y. Semedo (23'), K. Serge (30'), M. Baptista (52'), T. Silva (70'), Everton (79').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Pedras Rubras in Pedras Rubras.