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Pedras Rubras vs Amarante — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pedras Rubras
Pedras Rubras
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Amarante
Amarante
9/27/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Pedras Rubras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pedras Rubras21%
×Draw20%
Amarante58%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pedras Rubras
1.27
Amarante
2.20

Amarante creates 73% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pedras Rubras
1.00
Amarante
1.73

allows per match

Pedras Rubras
2.67
Amarante
1.55

finishing

Pedras Rubras+0.00on par
Amarante+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pedras Rubras ↓

Amarante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pedras Rubras or draw
42%
Pedras Rubras or Amarante
80%
Draw or Amarante
79%

Winning margin

Pedras Rubras wins by 2+
9%
Amarante wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Pedras Rubras 1+ goals
72%
Pedras Rubras 2+ goals
36%
Pedras Rubras 3+ goals
14%
Amarante 1+ goals
89%
Amarante 2+ goals
64%
Amarante 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Pedras Rubras (draw refunded)
27%
Amarante (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pedras Rubras at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Amarante away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pedras Rubras attack 1.00 + Amarante defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Amarante attack 1.73 + Pedras Rubras defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pedras Rubras scores more
21%
level
20%
Amarante scores more
58%

Amarante at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pedras Rubras vs Amarante

Pedras Rubras beat Amarante 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Pedras Rubras in Pedras Rubras.