Pécsi MFC 8–0 Dunaföldvár: Result & Stats

Pécsi MFC

FT

8 – 0

Dunaföldvár

7/27/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 1PMFC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pécsi MFC73%

×Draw15%

Dunaföldvár12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pécsi MFCExpected goals in this matchDunaföldvár

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.08

Pécsi MFC

2.85

Dunaföldvár

1.08

Pécsi MFC creates 164% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

2.60

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Pécsi MFC

2.60

Dunaföldvár

1.23

allows per match

Pécsi MFC

0.93

Dunaföldvár

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pécsi MFC+0.00on par

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pécsi MFC ↓

Dunaföldvár →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Pécsi MFC or draw

88%

Pécsi MFC or Dunaföldvár

85%

Draw or Dunaföldvár

27%

Winning margin

Pécsi MFC wins by 2+

53%

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pécsi MFC 1+ goals

94%

Pécsi MFC 2+ goals

77%

Pécsi MFC 3+ goals

53%

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals

66%

Dunaföldvár 2+ goals

29%

Dunaföldvár 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pécsi MFC (draw refunded)

86%

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pécsi MFC at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pécsi MFC attack 2.60 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.85

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Pécsi MFC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Pécsi MFC scores more

73%

level

15%

Dunaföldvár scores more

12%

Pécsi MFC at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Pécsi MFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff