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PEC Zwolle W vs Telstar W — Eredivisie Women 2018

PEC Zwolle W
PEC Zwolle W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Telstar W
Telstar W
4/20/2024Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 20MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

PEC Zwolle W58%
×Draw20%
Telstar W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle W
2.31
Telstar W
1.36

PEC Zwolle W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 32 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle W
1.64
Telstar W
0.75

allows per match

PEC Zwolle W
1.97
Telstar W
2.97

finishing

PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par
Telstar W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle W ↓

Telstar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle W or draw
78%
PEC Zwolle W or Telstar W
80%
Draw or Telstar W
42%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+
37%
Telstar W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals
90%
PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals
67%
PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals
40%
Telstar W 1+ goals
74%
Telstar W 2+ goals
39%
Telstar W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)
73%
Telstar W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.97 · 73 matches

Telstar W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.64 + Telstar W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.31

Telstar W attack 0.75 + PEC Zwolle W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

PEC Zwolle W scores more
58%
level
20%
Telstar W scores more
22%

PEC Zwolle W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "PEC Zwolle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PEC Zwolle W vs Telstar W

PEC Zwolle W beat Telstar W 2-0 in Eredivisie Women on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at MAC³PARK Stadion in Zwolle.