PEC Zwolle W 2–5 Fortuna Sittard W: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle W

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

Fortuna Sittard W

9/30/2022

Eredivisie Women · Round 3Sportpark De Vegtlust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

PEC Zwolle W30%

×Draw21%

Fortuna Sittard W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC Zwolle WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Sittard W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.06

PEC Zwolle W

1.60

Fortuna Sittard W

2.06

Fortuna Sittard W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 32 away

1.64

creates per match

2.16

1.97

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

PEC Zwolle W

1.64

Fortuna Sittard W

2.16

allows per match

PEC Zwolle W

1.97

Fortuna Sittard W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par

Fortuna Sittard W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle W ↓

Fortuna Sittard W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle W or draw

52%

PEC Zwolle W or Fortuna Sittard W

79%

Draw or Fortuna Sittard W

70%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+

14%

Fortuna Sittard W wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals

80%

PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals

47%

PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals

22%

Fortuna Sittard W 1+ goals

87%

Fortuna Sittard W 2+ goals

61%

Fortuna Sittard W 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)

39%

Fortuna Sittard W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.97 · 73 matches

Fortuna Sittard W away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.64 + Fortuna Sittard W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Fortuna Sittard W attack 2.16 + PEC Zwolle W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PEC Zwolle W scores more

30%

level

21%

Fortuna Sittard W scores more

48%

Fortuna Sittard W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Sittard W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff