Fortuna Sittard W 2–2 PEC Zwolle W: Result & Stats

Fortuna Sittard W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

PEC Zwolle W

2/7/2023

Eredivisie Women · Round 12Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fortuna Sittard W51%

×Draw22%

PEC Zwolle W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Sittard WExpected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.30

Fortuna Sittard W

1.90

PEC Zwolle W

1.30

Fortuna Sittard W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 73 away

1.78

creates per match

1.16

1.44

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Fortuna Sittard W

1.78

PEC Zwolle W

1.16

allows per match

Fortuna Sittard W

1.44

PEC Zwolle W

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Sittard W+0.00on par

PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Sittard W ↓

PEC Zwolle W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Fortuna Sittard W or draw

74%

Fortuna Sittard W or PEC Zwolle W

78%

Draw or PEC Zwolle W

49%

Winning margin

Fortuna Sittard W wins by 2+

29%

PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fortuna Sittard W 1+ goals

85%

Fortuna Sittard W 2+ goals

56%

Fortuna Sittard W 3+ goals

29%

PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals

73%

PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals

37%

PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Sittard W (draw refunded)

66%

PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Sittard W at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

PEC Zwolle W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.01 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Sittard W attack 1.78 + PEC Zwolle W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.90

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.16 + Fortuna Sittard W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fortuna Sittard W scores more

51%

level

22%

PEC Zwolle W scores more

26%

Fortuna Sittard W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fortuna Sittard W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff