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PEC Zwolle W vs Excelsior W — Eredivisie Women 2018

PEC Zwolle W
PEC Zwolle W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Excelsior W
Excelsior W
4/26/2026Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 19Sportpark Ceintuurbaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

PEC Zwolle W57%
×Draw20%
Excelsior W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle W
2.20
Excelsior W
1.32

PEC Zwolle W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle W
1.64
Excelsior W
0.68

allows per match

PEC Zwolle W
1.97
Excelsior W
2.76

finishing

PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par
Excelsior W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle W ↓

Excelsior W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle W or draw
77%
PEC Zwolle W or Excelsior W
80%
Draw or Excelsior W
43%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+
35%
Excelsior W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals
89%
PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals
64%
PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals
37%
Excelsior W 1+ goals
73%
Excelsior W 2+ goals
38%
Excelsior W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)
72%
Excelsior W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.97 · 73 matches

Excelsior W away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.76 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.64 + Excelsior W defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.20

Excelsior W attack 0.68 + PEC Zwolle W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

PEC Zwolle W scores more
57%
level
20%
Excelsior W scores more
23%

PEC Zwolle W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "PEC Zwolle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie Women: PEC Zwolle W 4–1 Excelsior W

PEC Zwolle W beat Excelsior W 4-1 in Eredivisie Women on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark Ceintuurbaan in Zwolle.