PEC Zwolle 1–0 Vitesse: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vitesse

1/26/2024

Eredivisie · Round 19MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

PEC Zwolle41%

×Draw25%

Vitesse35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC ZwolleExpected goals in this matchVitesse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.41

PEC Zwolle

1.54

Vitesse

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 102 away

1.36

creates per match

1.31

1.50

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

PEC Zwolle

1.36

Vitesse

1.31

allows per match

PEC Zwolle

1.50

Vitesse

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PEC Zwolle+0.00on par

Vitesse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Vitesse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw

65%

PEC Zwolle or Vitesse

75%

Draw or Vitesse

59%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

20%

Vitesse wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

79%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

45%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

20%

Vitesse 1+ goals

76%

Vitesse 2+ goals

41%

Vitesse 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

54%

Vitesse (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.36 + Vitesse defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vitesse attack 1.31 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more

41%

level

25%

Vitesse scores more

35%

PEC Zwolle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff