PEC Zwolle 3–3 Utrecht: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Utrecht

D. Vente 70', 18'

D. van den Berg 44'

N. Viergever 83'

O. Fraulo 59'

A. Descotte 55'

2/1/2025

Eredivisie · Round 21MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

PEC Zwolle40%

×Draw24%

Utrecht36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC ZwolleExpected goals in this matchUtrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.46

PEC Zwolle

1.56

Utrecht

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.43

creates per match

1.33

1.58

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

PEC Zwolle

1.43

Utrecht

1.33

allows per match

PEC Zwolle

1.58

Utrecht

1.69

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

PEC Zwolle-0.10scores less

Utrecht+0.45scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw

64%

PEC Zwolle or Utrecht

76%

Draw or Utrecht

60%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

20%

Utrecht wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

79%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

46%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

21%

Utrecht 1+ goals

77%

Utrecht 2+ goals

43%

Utrecht 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

53%

Utrecht (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.58 · 30 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.43 + Utrecht defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Utrecht attack 1.33 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more

40%

level

24%

Utrecht scores more

36%

PEC Zwolle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Vente

PEC Zwolle · F

8.0

Match Events

18'

D. Vente↳ Jamiro Monteiro

28'

Davy van den Berg

44'

D. van den Berg↳ F. Krastev

46'

V. Jensen← Zidane Iqbal

55'

A. Descotte↳ V. Jensen

59'

O. Fraulo↳ V. Jensen

70'

D. Vente

72'

D. Min← S. Haller

73'

S. Horemans← M. Didden

79'

A. Blake← A. Descotte

83'

N. Viergever

90+2'

Filip Krastev

90'

O. Velanas← D. Mbayo

90+1'

J. Toornstra← O. Fraulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PECUtrecht

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots17

0.70Expected Goals (xG)2.62

5Corners3

15Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots17

6On Target9

2Off Target7

4Blocked1

8Inside Box13

4Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

428Total Passes369

341Accurate Passes285

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

-2.02Goals Prevented-2.02

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1