PEC Zwolle 3–1 Fortuna Sittard: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fortuna Sittard

11/9/2024

Eredivisie · Round 12MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

PEC Zwolle47%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Sittard30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC ZwolleExpected goals in this matchFortuna Sittard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.38

PEC Zwolle

1.80

Fortuna Sittard

1.38

PEC Zwolle creates 30% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

0.90

1.85

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

PEC Zwolle

1.50

Fortuna Sittard

0.90

allows per match

PEC Zwolle

1.85

Fortuna Sittard

2.10

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

PEC Zwolle-0.17scores less

Fortuna Sittard+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Fortuna Sittard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw

70%

PEC Zwolle or Fortuna Sittard

77%

Draw or Fortuna Sittard

53%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

26%

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

83%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

54%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

27%

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals

75%

Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals

40%

Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

62%

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.85 · 18 matches

Fortuna Sittard away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.10 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.50 + Fortuna Sittard defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.80

Fortuna Sittard attack 0.90 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more

47%

level

23%

Fortuna Sittard scores more

30%

PEC Zwolle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff