PEC Zwolle 1–1 Borussia Dortmund II: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle

1 – 1

Borussia Dortmund II

6/30/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

PEC Zwolle26%

×Draw29%

Borussia Dortmund II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC ZwolleExpected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.28

PEC Zwolle

0.91

Borussia Dortmund II

1.28

Borussia Dortmund II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

0.25

creates per match

1.56

1.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

PEC Zwolle

0.25

Borussia Dortmund II

1.56

allows per match

PEC Zwolle

1.00

Borussia Dortmund II

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PEC Zwolle+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Borussia Dortmund II →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw

55%

PEC Zwolle or Borussia Dortmund II

71%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund II

74%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

Borussia Dortmund II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

60%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

23%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

Borussia Dortmund II 1+ goals

72%

Borussia Dortmund II 2+ goals

37%

Borussia Dortmund II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

37%

Borussia Dortmund II (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Borussia Dortmund II away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 0.25 + Borussia Dortmund II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.91

Borussia Dortmund II attack 1.56 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more

26%

level

29%

Borussia Dortmund II scores more

45%

Borussia Dortmund II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff