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PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie 2026

PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
9/20/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 6MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

PEC Zwolle35%
×Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle
1.57
AZ Alkmaar
1.76

AZ Alkmaar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle
1.50
AZ Alkmaar
1.67

allows per match

PEC Zwolle
1.85
AZ Alkmaar
1.65

finishing

PEC Zwolle-0.17scores less
AZ Alkmaar-0.24scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw
58%
PEC Zwolle or AZ Alkmaar
77%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
65%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
17%
AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
79%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
46%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
21%
AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
83%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
52%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
45%
AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.85 · 18 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.65 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.50 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.67 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more
35%
level
23%
AZ Alkmaar scores more
42%

AZ Alkmaar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar beat PEC Zwolle 2-1 in Eredivisie on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at MAC³PARK Stadion in Zwolle.