PEC Zwolle U21 0–2 Feyenoord U21: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle U21

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Feyenoord U21

3/2/2024

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 2Sportpark de Elshof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

PEC Zwolle U2138%

×Draw22%

Feyenoord U2141%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC Zwolle U21Expected goals in this matchFeyenoord U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.91

PEC Zwolle U21

1.84

Feyenoord U21

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 69 away

2.11

creates per match

1.99

1.82

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

PEC Zwolle U21

2.11

Feyenoord U21

1.99

allows per match

PEC Zwolle U21

1.82

Feyenoord U21

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

Feyenoord U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle U21 ↓

Feyenoord U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle U21 or draw

59%

PEC Zwolle U21 or Feyenoord U21

78%

Draw or Feyenoord U21

62%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+

20%

Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals

84%

PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals

55%

PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals

28%

Feyenoord U21 1+ goals

85%

Feyenoord U21 2+ goals

57%

Feyenoord U21 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)

48%

Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle U21 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

Feyenoord U21 away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 2.11 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.84

Feyenoord U21 attack 1.99 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PEC Zwolle U21 scores more

38%

level

22%

Feyenoord U21 scores more

41%

Feyenoord U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff