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PEC Zwolle U21 vs Emmen U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

PEC Zwolle U21
PEC Zwolle U21
FT
2 – 0
Emmen U21
Emmen U21
9/3/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 1Sportpark Be Quick '28 veld 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

PEC Zwolle U2170%
×Draw16%
Emmen U2114%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle U21
2.70
Emmen U21
1.13

PEC Zwolle U21 creates 139% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle U21
2.11
Emmen U21
0.43

allows per match

PEC Zwolle U21
1.82
Emmen U21
3.29

finishing

PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par
Emmen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle U21 ↓

Emmen U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle U21 or draw
86%
PEC Zwolle U21 or Emmen U21
84%
Draw or Emmen U21
30%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+
49%
Emmen U21 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals
93%
PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals
75%
PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals
50%
Emmen U21 1+ goals
68%
Emmen U21 2+ goals
31%
Emmen U21 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)
84%
Emmen U21 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle U21 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

Emmen U21 away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 2.11 + Emmen U21 defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.70

Emmen U21 attack 0.43 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

PEC Zwolle U21 scores more
70%
level
16%
Emmen U21 scores more
14%

PEC Zwolle U21 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "PEC Zwolle U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PEC Zwolle U21 2 – 0 Emmen U21

PEC Zwolle U21 beat Emmen U21 2-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Be Quick '28 veld 6 in Zwolle.