PEC Zwolle U21 3–5 Almere City II: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle U21

FT

3 – 5

Almere City II

1/28/2023

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 1Sportpark Be Quick '28 Veld 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

PEC Zwolle U2138%

×Draw21%

Almere City II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC Zwolle U21Expected goals in this matchAlmere City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.92

PEC Zwolle U21

1.86

Almere City II

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

2.11

creates per match

2.03

1.82

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

PEC Zwolle U21

2.11

Almere City II

2.03

allows per match

PEC Zwolle U21

1.82

Almere City II

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle U21 ↓

Almere City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle U21 or draw

60%

PEC Zwolle U21 or Almere City II

79%

Draw or Almere City II

62%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+

20%

Almere City II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals

84%

PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals

55%

PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals

28%

Almere City II 1+ goals

85%

Almere City II 2+ goals

57%

Almere City II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)

49%

Almere City II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle U21 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 2.11 + Almere City II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

Almere City II attack 2.03 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PEC Zwolle U21 scores more

38%

level

21%

Almere City II scores more

40%

Almere City II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff