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Peachtree City vs Tri-Cities — USL League Two 2018

Peachtree City
Peachtree City
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
7/16/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 75Peachtree City MOBA Soccer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peachtree City46%
×Draw21%
Tri-Cities33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peachtree City
2.02
Tri-Cities
1.69

Peachtree City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Peachtree City
2.19
Tri-Cities
1.74

allows per match

Peachtree City
1.63
Tri-Cities
1.84

finishing

Peachtree City+0.00on par
Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peachtree City ↓

Tri-Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Peachtree City or draw
67%
Peachtree City or Tri-Cities
79%
Draw or Tri-Cities
54%

Winning margin

Peachtree City wins by 2+
26%
Tri-Cities wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Peachtree City 1+ goals
87%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
60%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
33%
Tri-Cities 1+ goals
82%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
50%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Peachtree City (draw refunded)
58%
Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peachtree City at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peachtree City attack 2.19 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + Peachtree City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peachtree City scores more
46%
level
21%
Tri-Cities scores more
33%

Peachtree City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peachtree City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peachtree City vs Tri-Cities

Tri-Cities beat Peachtree City 3-2 in USL League Two on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Peachtree City MOBA Soccer in Peachtree City, GA.