Peachtree City 0–1 Dalton Red Wolves

Peachtree City

FT

0 – 1

Dalton Red Wolves

6/19/2021

USL League Two · Round 31Peachtree City MOBA Soccer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peachtree City51%

×Draw22%

Dalton Red Wolves28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peachtree CityExpected goals in this matchDalton Red Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.46

Peachtree City

2.04

Dalton Red Wolves

1.46

Peachtree City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

2.19

creates per match

1.29

1.63

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Peachtree City

2.19

Dalton Red Wolves

1.29

allows per match

Peachtree City

1.63

Dalton Red Wolves

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peachtree City+0.00on par

Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peachtree City ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Peachtree City or draw

72%

Peachtree City or Dalton Red Wolves

78%

Draw or Dalton Red Wolves

49%

Winning margin

Peachtree City wins by 2+

30%

Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Peachtree City 1+ goals

87%

Peachtree City 2+ goals

60%

Peachtree City 3+ goals

33%

Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals

77%

Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals

43%

Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Peachtree City (draw refunded)

65%

Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peachtree City at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peachtree City attack 2.19 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + Peachtree City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Peachtree City scores more

51%

level

22%

Dalton Red Wolves scores more

28%

Peachtree City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Peachtree City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff