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Peachtree City vs Charlotte Eagles — USL League Two 2018

Peachtree City
Peachtree City
PST
23:30
Charlotte Eagles
Charlotte Eagles
6/10/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 27Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peachtree City45%
×Draw21%
Charlotte Eagles34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peachtree City
2.00
Charlotte Eagles
1.73

Peachtree City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Peachtree City
2.19
Charlotte Eagles
1.84

allows per match

Peachtree City
1.63
Charlotte Eagles
1.80

finishing

Peachtree City+0.00on par
Charlotte Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peachtree City ↓

Charlotte Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Peachtree City or draw
66%
Peachtree City or Charlotte Eagles
79%
Draw or Charlotte Eagles
55%

Winning margin

Peachtree City wins by 2+
25%
Charlotte Eagles wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Peachtree City 1+ goals
86%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
59%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
32%
Charlotte Eagles 1+ goals
82%
Charlotte Eagles 2+ goals
52%
Charlotte Eagles 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Peachtree City (draw refunded)
57%
Charlotte Eagles (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peachtree City at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Charlotte Eagles away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peachtree City attack 2.19 + Charlotte Eagles defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Charlotte Eagles attack 1.84 + Peachtree City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peachtree City scores more
45%
level
21%
Charlotte Eagles scores more
34%

Peachtree City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Peachtree City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peachtree City face Charlotte Eagles (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Peachtree City hosting Charlotte Eagles. Match starts June 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Peachtree City host Charlotte Eagles at Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.