Charlotte Eagles 3–0 Peachtree City: Result & Stats

Charlotte Eagles

FT

3 – 0

Peachtree City

7/14/2019

USL League Two · Round 1Nation Ford Stadium (Whiteville Park, South Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Charlotte Eagles55%

×Draw21%

Peachtree City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charlotte EaglesExpected goals in this matchPeachtree City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.36

Charlotte Eagles

2.12

Peachtree City

1.36

Charlotte Eagles creates 56% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 20 away

2.09

creates per match

0.90

1.83

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Charlotte Eagles

2.09

Peachtree City

0.90

allows per match

Charlotte Eagles

1.83

Peachtree City

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlotte Eagles+0.00on par

Peachtree City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Eagles ↓

Peachtree City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Charlotte Eagles or draw

76%

Charlotte Eagles or Peachtree City

79%

Draw or Peachtree City

45%

Winning margin

Charlotte Eagles wins by 2+

33%

Peachtree City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Charlotte Eagles 1+ goals

88%

Charlotte Eagles 2+ goals

62%

Charlotte Eagles 3+ goals

35%

Peachtree City 1+ goals

74%

Peachtree City 2+ goals

39%

Peachtree City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Eagles (draw refunded)

69%

Peachtree City (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Eagles at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.83 · 46 matches

Peachtree City away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Eagles attack 2.09 + Peachtree City defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.12

Peachtree City attack 0.90 + Charlotte Eagles defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Charlotte Eagles scores more

55%

level

21%

Peachtree City scores more

24%

Charlotte Eagles at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Charlotte Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff