PE Sant Jordi 2–1 Rotlet Molinar: Result & Stats

PE Sant Jordi

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rotlet Molinar

12/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Campo Municipal Kiko Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

PE Sant Jordi50%

×Draw26%

Rotlet Molinar24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PE Sant JordiExpected goals in this matchRotlet Molinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.99

PE Sant Jordi

1.55

Rotlet Molinar

0.99

PE Sant Jordi creates 57% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 37 away

1.34

creates per match

0.76

1.23

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

PE Sant Jordi

1.34

Rotlet Molinar

0.76

allows per match

PE Sant Jordi

1.23

Rotlet Molinar

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Rotlet Molinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PE Sant Jordi ↓

Rotlet Molinar →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

PE Sant Jordi or draw

76%

PE Sant Jordi or Rotlet Molinar

74%

Draw or Rotlet Molinar

50%

Winning margin

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

26%

Rotlet Molinar wins by 2+

Team goals

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

79%

PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

46%

PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

20%

Rotlet Molinar 1+ goals

63%

Rotlet Molinar 2+ goals

26%

Rotlet Molinar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

68%

Rotlet Molinar (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

PE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Rotlet Molinar away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.34 + Rotlet Molinar defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rotlet Molinar attack 0.76 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

PE Sant Jordi scores more

50%

level

26%

Rotlet Molinar scores more

24%

PE Sant Jordi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PE Sant Jordi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PE Sant Jordi vs Rotlet Molinar

PE Sant Jordi beat Rotlet Molinar 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Kiko Serra in Sant Josep de sa Talaia, Illes Balears.

PE Sant Jordi vs Rotlet Molinar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: PE Sant Jordi vs Rotlet Molinar