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PE Sant Jordi vs Mallorca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mallorca II
Mallorca II
2/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 31Campo Municipal Kiko Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

PE Sant Jordi25%
×Draw25%
Mallorca II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PE Sant Jordi
1.03
Mallorca II
1.59

Mallorca II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 80 away

creates per match

PE Sant Jordi
1.34
Mallorca II
1.96

allows per match

PE Sant Jordi
1.23
Mallorca II
0.72

finishing

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par
Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PE Sant Jordi ↓

Mallorca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

PE Sant Jordi or draw
50%
PE Sant Jordi or Mallorca II
75%
Draw or Mallorca II
75%

Winning margin

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
9%
Mallorca II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
64%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
28%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
9%
Mallorca II 1+ goals
80%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
47%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
33%
Mallorca II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.34 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.03

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PE Sant Jordi scores more
25%
level
25%
Mallorca II scores more
50%

Mallorca II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: PE Sant Jordi 1–1 Mallorca II

PE Sant Jordi and Mallorca II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Kiko Serra in Sant Josep de sa Talaia, Illes Balears.