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PE Sant Jordi vs Inter Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
3/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 24Campo Municipal Kiko Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

PE Sant Jordi62%
×Draw21%
Inter Manacor17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PE Sant Jordi
1.96
Inter Manacor
0.91

PE Sant Jordi creates 115% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 32 away

creates per match

PE Sant Jordi
1.34
Inter Manacor
0.59

allows per match

PE Sant Jordi
1.23
Inter Manacor
2.59

finishing

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par
Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PE Sant Jordi ↓

Inter Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

PE Sant Jordi or draw
83%
PE Sant Jordi or Inter Manacor
79%
Draw or Inter Manacor
38%

Winning margin

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
37%
Inter Manacor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
86%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
58%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
31%
Inter Manacor 1+ goals
60%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
23%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
79%
Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Inter Manacor away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.34 + Inter Manacor defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.96

Inter Manacor attack 0.59 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

PE Sant Jordi scores more
62%
level
21%
Inter Manacor scores more
17%

PE Sant Jordi at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "PE Sant Jordi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PE Sant Jordi vs Inter Manacor

PE Sant Jordi beat Inter Manacor 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Kiko Serra in Sant Josep de sa Talaia.