PE Sant Jordi 1–1 Collerense: Result & Stats

PE Sant Jordi

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Collerense

2/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 21Campo Municipal Kiko Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

PE Sant Jordi49%

×Draw25%

Collerense26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PE Sant JordiExpected goals in this matchCollerense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.11

PE Sant Jordi

1.61

Collerense

1.11

PE Sant Jordi creates 45% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 113 away

1.34

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

PE Sant Jordi

1.34

Collerense

1.00

allows per match

PE Sant Jordi

1.23

Collerense

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PE Sant Jordi ↓

Collerense →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

PE Sant Jordi or draw

74%

PE Sant Jordi or Collerense

75%

Draw or Collerense

51%

Winning margin

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

26%

Collerense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

80%

PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

48%

PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

22%

Collerense 1+ goals

67%

Collerense 2+ goals

30%

Collerense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

65%

Collerense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

PE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.34 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Collerense attack 1.00 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

PE Sant Jordi scores more

49%

level

25%

Collerense scores more

26%

PE Sant Jordi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PE Sant Jordi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff