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PDX vs Capital — USL League Two 2018

PDX
PDX
FT
2 – 2
Capital
Capital
6/10/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 6Sam Barlow High School Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

PDX34%
×Draw21%
Capital45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PDX
1.79
Capital
2.06

Capital creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

PDX
1.89
Capital
1.62

allows per match

PDX
2.50
Capital
1.69

finishing

PDX+0.00on par
Capital+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PDX ↓

Capital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

PDX or draw
55%
PDX or Capital
79%
Draw or Capital
66%

Winning margin

PDX wins by 2+
17%
Capital wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

PDX 1+ goals
83%
PDX 2+ goals
53%
PDX 3+ goals
26%
Capital 1+ goals
87%
Capital 2+ goals
61%
Capital 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

PDX (draw refunded)
43%
Capital (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PDX at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Capital away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PDX attack 1.89 + Capital defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.79

Capital attack 1.62 + PDX defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PDX scores more
34%
level
21%
Capital scores more
45%

Capital at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Capital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PDX vs Capital

PDX and Capital drew 2-2 in USL League Two on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sam Barlow High School Football Field in Gresham, Oregon.