Pdrm 4–3 Felda United FC: Result & Stats

Pdrm

4 – 3

Felda United FC

8/7/2019

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadium Hang Jebat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pdrm24%

×Draw17%

Felda United FC59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PdrmExpected goals in this matchFelda United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

3.05

Pdrm

1.96

Felda United FC

3.05

Felda United FC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.43

creates per match

2.25

3.86

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Pdrm

1.43

Felda United FC

2.25

allows per match

Pdrm

3.86

Felda United FC

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pdrm+0.00on par

Felda United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pdrm ↓

Felda United FC →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–43%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Pdrm or draw

41%

Pdrm or Felda United FC

83%

Draw or Felda United FC

76%

Winning margin

Pdrm wins by 2+

12%

Felda United FC wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Pdrm 1+ goals

86%

Pdrm 2+ goals

58%

Pdrm 3+ goals

31%

Felda United FC 1+ goals

95%

Felda United FC 2+ goals

80%

Felda United FC 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Pdrm (draw refunded)

29%

Felda United FC (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pdrm at home — creates 1.43, concedes 3.86 · 7 matches

Felda United FC away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pdrm attack 1.43 + Felda United FC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.96

Felda United FC attack 2.25 + Pdrm defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 3.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pdrm scores more

24%

level

17%

Felda United FC scores more

59%

Felda United FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Felda United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff