Pčinja Trgovište 3–2 Radnički Svilajnac

Pčinja Trgovište

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Radnički Svilajnac

11/11/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 14Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište49%

×Draw23%

Radnički Svilajnac28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pčinja TrgovišteExpected goals in this matchRadnički Svilajnac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.29

Pčinja Trgovište

1.78

Radnički Svilajnac

1.29

Pčinja Trgovište creates 38% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 78 away

2.03

creates per match

1.37

1.22

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište

2.03

Radnički Svilajnac

1.37

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište

1.22

Radnički Svilajnac

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw

72%

Pčinja Trgovište or Radnički Svilajnac

77%

Draw or Radnički Svilajnac

51%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

27%

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

83%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

53%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

26%

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals

72%

Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals

37%

Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

64%

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.78

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

49%

level

23%

Radnički Svilajnac scores more

28%

Pčinja Trgovište at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff