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Pčinja Trgovište vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
FT
4 – 1
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
10/22/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište60%
×Draw21%
Dunav Stari Banovci19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pčinja Trgovište
2.01
Dunav Stari Banovci
1.04

Pčinja Trgovište creates 93% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište
2.03
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.86

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište
1.22
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.00

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw
81%
Pčinja Trgovište or Dunav Stari Banovci
79%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
40%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
36%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
87%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
59%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
32%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
65%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
28%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
76%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.86 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more
60%
level
21%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
19%

Pčinja Trgovište at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pčinja Trgovište vs Dunav Stari Banovci

Pčinja Trgovište beat Dunav Stari Banovci 4-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trgovište in Trgovište.